Rasat

Does this electricity price forecast beat a simple rule of thumb?

For people who work in the sectorIn plain languageFor machines (JSON)

What is being measured

Electricity is bought and sold a day in advance. A price for every hour of tomorrow is set today. A forecast tries to work those prices out in advance.

The comparison uses two simple rules anybody could apply. The first takes tomorrow’s hourly prices to be the same as the last day whose prices are known. The second uses the price at the same hour a week earlier. Each day, the forecast has to beat whichever of those two came closer to the prices that actually happened.

Each forecast goes on the record first, and the outcome becomes known afterwards. The record keeps the forecast as it was first written.

The answer so far

So far, yes. The forecast came closer on 19 of the 27 days scored than the simple rule did, and its average error across the whole period is lower too.

These figures are preliminary for now. The record needs 60 days before it counts as evidence. It is 33 days short of that.

The days, sorted by the difference

4000-150
Each bar is one of the 27 days scored. The days are ordered starting with the one on which the forecast made the most error against the simple rule. A bar above the line is a day the forecast came closer to the prices that actually happened; a bar below it is a day the simple rule did. The length of a bar is the difference in error, in lira per megawatt-hour.

This month

September 2026
20 more days went on the record this month. On 14 of them the forecast came closer to the prices that actually happened than the simple rule did.

What this record covers, and what it does not

  • The record covers days that have already happened. For those days it shows which of the two came closer to the prices that actually happened.
  • Why the price moved is outside what this record covers.
  • Only days with every hourly price published are counted. The same condition applies to days on which the forecasts were very close to what happened.
  • This record covers the price only. The other quantities are measured separately and a separate record is kept for each.

Where this comes from

Source
EPİAŞ Şeffaflık Platformu (Piyasa Takas Fiyatı). The forecasts and their scores are recorded by Rasat.
These figures were read at
21.09.2026 02:09 TRT

The same record, in more detail

The method, the figures for every day and the limits of what can be concluded from this record are on the other version of this page.

For people who work in the sector

Open this record in Rasat

All reports